tv Squawk Box CNBC March 26, 2020 6:00am-9:00am EDT
coronavirus situation. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe will be with us shortly, we think. these are the hazards of trying to work remotely good morning to you. >> good morning to you what a day with all the data coming >> let's look at what is happening with the futures we are slightly lower right now. dow is up 13%, more than that over two sessions. the s&p futures are indicated weaker this morning. dow futures look like we'd open down about 255 points. these numbers are all over the place. s&p indicated down about 33 and nasdaq off by 92 let's look at what has been happening in the treasury market the 10-year looks like it is
yielding around where it had been .8% is roughly the mark we've been sitting at. it looks like the 10-year is yielding as well >> i know people are short and anxious. these two days back-to-back are we putting in a bottom these numbers in new york look promising like the numbers may not be going up as rapidly as imagined we'll see. we have a lot of big guests to talk about that. we want to get everybody up to date about what happened last night. the senate passing that stimulus bill it now goes to the senate. steve liesman will cover the potential impact on the economy. first, we'll go to washington, d.c. where eamon javers is this
morning. >> i can't think of another major vote that was this unanimous, 96-0. it would have been even more if it hadn't been for the fact that so many members of congress are back home or suffering themselves from this virus we could of seen a 100-0 vote yesterday. buts that where it handed. what is in the bill? just about something for everybody in the economy let's whip through the details for almost everybody, there are these direct payments of $1,200. $500 per child, that phases out at $75,000 >> extending benefits to 39 weeks from 26 weeks. extends benefits to gig workers. for small business, $350 billion
for small business loans that could be forgiven entirely if the small business doesn't lay anybody off after the eight-week period is over that is an important one for big business, a lot of different pieces but $500 billion in loan or direct aid. the federal reserve will massively expand lending for the states $150 billion for direct aid for hospitals. there is a bump in cases here. $2 trillion is the initial score but i believe that cost could go up over time as everything is taken advantage of by americans across the country >> eamon, we need to get this -- i mean the clock is ticking.
in terms of timing for the house to pass this, how quickly does this happen? you are hearing from folks like aoc and others that says they want to get everybody there in person, which would be impossible in the time line. there are folks that want to push back on the bailout it does appear to me to allow, highly paid executives to keep that pay throughout. what do you think is going to happen here? >> look, the plan right now, this is not a thursday thing, it is a friday thing. what the house is going to try to do is have a voice vote on the floor with nobody objecting and then without bringing the majority back. bringing them back in this era of the virus and limited flights, it could be tricky.
you have a number from the house that are dealing with covid. if they decide they want to make a ruk us here. the house can get it to a unanimous place like the senate did. we don't know that yet yesterday, we saw a minirebellion from four republican senators that were concerned that the stimulus paid workers more than they were making before and disincentivizing returning to work those senators voted for it. we'll see if the left does the same thing on the house side as well >> you saw mnuchin talking yesterday saying even if things were to pass right away, you are talking about three weeks before
this money makes its way to the american people and businesses that need it the sense of urgency we are talking about here, is that understood >> i think it is that's part of why you saw that unanimous vote one republican senator who had some kwaums about this but said, look, i'm going to vote for it this is important. i've got some problems with it but we need to get this thing done that's where a lot of them landed i can't tell you just on twitter, small people reaching out to me with questions of how do i get this 7a loan? the banks, the federal reserve, all of it will strain to get this money out the door but it will have to be done
>> i agree with you, eamon you are getting these e-mails too. we all are the number of people getting laid off people saying, look, i don't know what's going to be in this bill or if i'll ever get this money. we are laying off people now, then you will ask them if you lay them off now, will you retire all of them they say that is impossible to say. call your banker if you are running a small business today to get a sense of how much time you have and get that grace period built in right now. that is the other piece of it, some of the bankers that will likely be responsible for some of the loans are also not sure how quickly this is going to go and not necessarily telling small businesses, you know, hank
on, we'll try to work this out and figure it out with you too >> the big unknown is landlords as well. >> whether they'll give rent holiday or any grace period. >> steve, you've been speaking about the need to call your banker how do you see it? >> there are provisions in there to expand the small business lending to allow more branches to provide it and ease restrictions i don't know which version i read i read a dozen of them it seemed to ease the conditions of the small business loans. so, it is going to take time but less time than it otherwise would have if the fed gets the program up
and running, there could be two sources of money but it is not right away >> the idea for the small businesses that they'll expand to the so-called 7a program. you don't have to go to the federal government you as a small business owner, go directly to your usual banker they'll issue these 7a loans and there is a provision fof forbearance on existing sba loan there is another bit of relief there for small businesses >> we need the bankers to step up here. this is a difficult time i do want to talk about this terrible jobless claim number that is coming and why it is a little bit of good news. bare with me, we are about to
have an historic surge of the jobless number that will come out at 8:30 double the amount of people filed for the fiers time for jobless claims the previous record was 695,000 in 1982. the number could be a lot bigger we've seen numbers up to 3 million here let's talk inside the number, what the story is. there is a lot of drama behind the scenes a number of people lost their jobs second is the ability for states to process huge claims like this third is these efforts by some employers trying to do the right thing and retain their workers this is a big surge. let's show you a story of why it
is good the economy is starting from at least a good place they've surged to 6 or 7 million. beginning from a low-standpoint. so that is a good sign here for where we have to go. it may go up all the way but it is better to start at a lower number -- >> hey, steve. that's a stretch >> go ahead. becky? >> that's a stretch for a silver lining the good news is we are starting from a low base. the governor in california said they've seen a million from california last week >> i know. but if we were starting from 400,000, it is a better place to start where we were at 200,000 i agree. it is a stretch. here is another stretch. let me give you one more stretch
for a silver lining, which is this it is always bad when somebody looses their job the jobless claims program is designed to be the first line of defense to any kind of a shock to the system here what you see is people that will get aid and they'll get it faster than eamon's folks in washington who are saying three weeks. it is a good thing and on one hand people will be getting assistance i know those are stretches but i would prefer to see people getting the aid they
need. >> has anybody talked to a small banker to see if they understand this at this point are they saying, the fed has our back, let's go >> talking to bankers who are saying we'll have this figured out by next week we'll have an application form as soon as next week it will be an enormous surge. there will be a flood of people applying for this. >> there has to be some guidance as well. next week is optimistic.
>> what are the numbers? something like 5.5 million small businesses not all of them will apply then you have this other pot of money, this $450 billion that goes over to the fed and creates the possibility of something like $4 trillion of traditional lending aimed more at the medium-sized businesses. the fed has to get that standing up over the next couple of weeks what we heard yesterday is that they'll have to use the commercial banks for that as well. >> the small businesses started laying off last week if we are talking about two or three
weeks, that is a long time before they see aid. if you are not getting any sales or doing any business if it is not a forgiven loan, you won't be in position to bring those back right now, this is a liquidity issue. it depends on how long it goes on that is so critical. steve liesman, thank you don't miss treasury secretary steven min steven mnuchin in the 9:00 hour. a little later, paul tudor jones will talk about how he is
investing. he warned us about the coronavirus back in january in davos. watch out at 8:30, we'll get jobless claims numbers, expected to shatter the previous record as we head to the break, here are some images of the pandemic impact across america. tomorrow. it's a day filled with promise and new beginnings, challenges and opportunities. at ameriprise financial we can't predict what tomorrow will bring. but our comprehensive approach to financial planning
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welcome back apple trying to bounce lack this morning. the company is considering delaying the annual iphone launch for months because of issues related to the coronavirus. the newest phone expected to be 5g capable raising pressure on apple after more devices are expected to be a big hit with consumers
apple headquarters currently under shelter-in-place orders right now. the supply chain may very well be the other mcdonalds pulling the all-day break fast menu to simply things. saying, quote, we'll regularly re-evaluate and look to move back to our regular menu as soon as possible. shares of mcdonalds will show you where things stand right now at $161.39 new data outthat our partners put together every year revealing a record 2019 for hedge funds, that should say before the virus broke out
the top fund managers made $20 billion. topping the list was london based chris hohn tied with jim simons and ken griffin at $1.5 billion. my only note when i say this every year is this isn't just how much they are paid a lot is also how much money they have in the fund. a combination of the fee but what their total stake in the fund was and went up by. that is where that number comes from because so many of these guys have huge, huge money in their own funds. not to say these are outsized to
begin with >> will be interesting to see this list because of everything that happened over the last six weeks or so, right >> to think. he called it right bill ackman will be on that list >> did you see what ackman did though ackman was super short when he came on and talked about how everything is going to hell in a hand basket and then covered it. >> then covered it but he had been right. i don't know where his numbers were he did call this one right he had been hedged into this whole thing. he's now saying he's buying stocks it will be very interesting in last week was a bottom this morning, things are looking into the red as people are worried about jobless claims
let me tell you about a warning last night from the mayo clinic they are concerned that some of these leading contenders of off-labeled drugs could actually cause sudden cardiac arrest in some patients. doctor michael ackermann is a doctor from the mayo clinic who issued this guidance he's with us to talk about this concerning news. doctor, thank you for being with us >> good morning. great to be with you >> let's talk, first of all. you are a cardiologist, you are not making any judgement of whether these drugs are effective in treating coronavirus. you are just saying there are concerns people should know before hand in using those off
labels >> yes, i'm just a genetic cardiologist i'll leave it to dr. fauci and others to z learn if these drugs work do these increase the patient's chance for the heart to spin electrically out of control to a dangerous rhythm if that doesn't revert back to normal, that patient will go on to experience drug-induced sudden cardiac arrest and worse, sudden cardiac death >> what are the drugs? >> they are hydroxychloroquine
and chloroquine. i hope there is edthecasy. these are powerful drugs it is one thing when the side effect is a runny nose it's another thing when the side effect is tragic cardiac risk. we have to do everything to make sure that there is a healthy dose of respect, not fear but respect, for navigating the qt issue and potential for sudden death. >> those drugs are being tested here in new york to try to help some of the sickest corona
patients what would you advise these doctors at this point, they are doing their best right now, how do you check that these patients don't have underlying issues >> one of the ways is to know your patient's qtc know that number just like a diabetic would know their numbers. the ecg can tell us the patient's qtc value. is it too hot, too cold? if it's too hot too long, we know the patient is vulnerable if they can't even obtain a qtc, we need to do the mitigating factors and say, can i remove preempt tiffly any and y'all qtc
factors. is their magnesium level normal? i better get it normal are they on any drugs potentially setting them up. there are over 100 drugs that could increase the chance for sudden drug-induced death. there is a powerful website, www.credible meds.org that could help with that we should try to know what are patient's qtc is 90% could be qt cleared. they have plenty of safety margin, 90%. it is really that 1% that has a red alert value that they are approaching the edge of the cliff. we better make sure we have all
appropriate qt counter measures in place to make that side effect as unlikely as we possibly can the problem is that the ecg is a machine a patient has to walk in with exposing him or herself to coronavirus using up personal protection equipment the fda just gave emergency approval last friday for a smartphone enabled device to obtain a mobil ecg that mobil ecg from a live core, could already be in the patient's room and be real time to show the patient's vital signs. >> that's fantastic. thank you for bringing us the concerns it is great to hear just about the innovation and how it could be done on an iphone as well
if you have additional updates, will you let us know about them? >> i would be delighted to thank you for having me this morning. >> again, dr. michael 5:0ackerm is from the mayor clinic talking about how some of the drugs that are top contenders could have some side effects but that there are ways to treat that andrew, over to you. we'll get a read of the impact of small businesses from the ceo of paychecks that is next at 8:30, an important number to watch. we'll get jobless claims that number expected to shatter previous records as we head to break, a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers back in a moment life isn't a straight line.
down somewhere around 210, 200 points an update now that the u.s. has over 69,000 cases of coronavirus, the death toll has surpassed 1,000. global deaths has surpassed 21,000 worldwide becky, i know what you are dealing with >> joe and i spent much of the morning face timing tryitiming m through this >> you have what we are calling a pad caster >> right i've been dealing with my router turning it on and off to get a
higher bandwidth everything else had to be turned off in the house the shot kept freezing like yours did, becky >> there is a better way >> i'm so ready now to impart wisdom and analysis. i too am worried about that number, andrew i've been watching that is a very important number. >> the 8:30 jobless claims but i'm here ready and raring to go >> i've got tips for you later you've got to get off wi-fi. that's the biggest problem now that i have a hard lined connection, that is better >> you have a camera, sorkin >> we are not running off that
we had spectrum bring in here and bring in two extra high-speed lines so that this thing could hopefully never go down we'll see what happens >> you went down yesterday >> our sound went down but that wasn't a function of the cable that wasn't a cable issue. we have a lot to talk about. >> let's go. let's talk about the senate passing a $2 trillion stimulus bill to help workers including $350 billion in aid to small businesses a look at how to get this money to businesses. that is the issue on the table going to the ceo of paychecks. let's talk about the number coming and what that could look like and what the world should even think about that number
>> it is going to be a shock it is the first time we've maybe seen a number like that ever the stimulus package and getting it approved but now we have to get it into the hands of small businesses you are hearing them them, i am. we have to simplify, communicate it and get the cash in their hands. these small businesses can't hold on. looking at some of the things in this bill like sick pay, extending paid family medical leave, you got to be employed to get that money so we have to get this money quickly into the hands of businesses >> in terms of mechanisms, marty. that's the question. getting it into their hands and who will make these loans. this may look like a liquidity
crisis today but may become a solvant crisis it is unclear how long this is going to go on for >> one thing is, payroll processors we sent letters to congress and to the president and said, payroll processors, we paid everyone, i haven't missed a payroll yet. we've got 16,000 workers working from home and have the best m metrics ever i've seen a lot of the red tape getting cut. it is all about the cash for small businesses they are making decisions this week two weeks ago, they were worried
about how to hire people and find people. >> help the viewer out there who owns a small business, who owns a restaurant, who has zero revenue coming in. has a staff. they want to keep the staff on board. they are told, i may get the revenue but if this goes on for a month or two, the math doesn't add up tofor me i hear that story every hour >> first, before i contact your bank to see, can i get some sort of short-term loan paychex has been in this business for many years. we are waiting for the final regulations and talking to the
treasury and congress every day to get the rules settled out go to your bank and see if you can get a short-term loan. see if you can furlough employees, split jobs, keep things going for the short term. this is at least going to go on for eight weeks, meaning the backup of the payroll. and i'm not sure it will go on any longer if they need it short term, count on the government to help you if it goes longer. >> the question is, if your biggest expense is employees and you want to continue to pay them and you look at your bank account dwindling. you may be saying, i'm not sure this is going to go on for three or four weeks. should i be paying on the risk
or should i lay these people off now. you can also make a distinction of laying people off and the hope of hiring them back later the distinction between that and a furlough >> every business has to make that decision but the furlough is, hey, look, i'm not going to pay you but i'm going to keep you on the payroll versus laying you off and i'm not going to be able to pay you or give you sick pay or paid family leave most businesses will try to get some cash to do it and trust in the government i've never seen the government so supportive of small business in our history if you can hang on with some cash and count on those things coming but the government has to find the fastest way to get this money to them. one of the ways is coming to us
as a payroll processor we think the most up to date accounts for employees we probably paid them last week or two weeks ago, we need to know where the dollars are, so we can get money into employees' hands. >> folks in washington watching, call marty thank you for coming up. wish you a lot of luck hopefully helping to get that money to people who need it becky, over to you let's look at the futures quickly. we are well off the lows we saw earlier when we started about 40 minutes ago, you were looking at the dow down about 350 now the dow is down about 120. the dow is swinging all over the place. s&p down by about 15 and the nasdaq down about 34
when we come back, we'll talk about some portfolio moves you might want to consider right now. later this morning, we'll speak with paul tudor jones. he warned us back in january that the coronavirus would be a big deal he told us that on the set in davos. boy, is he right we'll talk about where he sees things going from here you can watch us on the app any time live. "squawk box" will be right back. creating a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility. emerson. consider it solved. that's what happens in golf nothiand in life.ily. i'm very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. you can't do everything yourself. you need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, that's morgan stanley.
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it is time to get busy now, our next guest says this environment is like a candy store in small and mid-capped value land i don't know, not feeling that much like that alex roepers joining us now. what do you mean by that, alex >> caller: good morning. thank you for having me on clearly the market has discounted a terrible scenario we are in a terrible scenario. i've been at this over 32 years with a mid-cap investment strategy that has done very well clearly, going into ado downtur
like this with undervalued companies feels better than the bigger names we have seen the impact globally midcap, $1 trillion market cap it is not our first rodeo. we'll have to live through a lot of choppy and bad news in the coming month but the time to scale in and buy, if you have the opportunity, is certainly now. >> you would think, considering where a lot of these stocks are based on where they were six weeks ago. you avoid tech tech and biotech biotech seems like it is on everybody's list right now why those areas? >> caller: we decided it is not really analyzable.
i construct high-position companies with reliable cash flow with low multiples, that sector has to be excluded. we ask our investors to know that and go to other managers or pick their own stocks in that sector >> do you have some individual names can you give us you've been picking at? you going full in, like 20% or 30% of your eventual position and waiting to see what happens? >> caller: we are pretty much fully invested at all times. just like in 2008, we'll make some lateral moves in some cases, get out of a certain position because so many other great positions appear so we make lateral moves names that we like at the moment is a company called dxe
technology, which might surprise you given that it is technology. it is an it services company much like what ibm does. consulting services for hardware, software, peopleware they are imbedded, they onboard them on the cloud. the computer scientists went into some trouble in integration. they put in price cutting. coming in to set out a great plan to get this company back on track. they announced a huge step forward with investing of one unit for $5 trillion that reduces the debt by a large amount drops 17 or so to 8. now back to 16
it came from like 45 or 50 it is not going to go back there. we can see this stock going to 30, if you are 30, you are probably looking at a pf 10 in a year or so from now. so opportunity >> you've had a long relationship with tesla, not necessarily one where you're bullish on the stock you have in the past thought it was over valued. where are you now on tesla >> tesla in the past had a fantastic short thesis on it distress, the inability to manufacture the bottlenecks. it made it a great short to trade which we've done very actively for about five years. in september last year at the frankfurt auto show we decided that we should step aside for quite a while because they had clearly figured out how to set
up a factory in shanghai, how to set up in california and the inept competition wasn't coming on on top of that, we stepped aside thankfully for a while we are short again now this thesis is different the thesis is simply there's a terrible situation going on in the automotive industry in general, even though they're the leader clearly in electric cars. the valuation is still outlandish this is execution on the growth in shanghai and eventually in europe i think it's a dangerous stock to own clearly long term. the cult has -- that's following the stock clearly has their reasons to like it, but i think the down side is pretty large at this moment given the demand issues and the potential production falloff. >> alex roepers, we appreciate it we'll be watching those individual issues. >> thank you very much thanks for having me. >> andrew, i think i'm kind of
following what's going on. i finally got this thing working so i can see the rundown and i see a.s. is on this next one i'm going to toss it to you. >> yeah. >> when we come back, a lot more on "squawk box" this morning he's got the computer working. more investment ideas at the top of the hour. we'll talk to mike wilson from morgan stanley, and then later you don't want to miss this interview. paul tudor jones is going to join us to talk about the markets in this volatility he told us on january 21st to be nervous and be careful he got it right. we'll be back right after this. don't forget to subscribe to our podcast. you'll get interviews, original content, and behind-the-scenes access look for us on apple podcast or on your favoriteodst pca app and subscribe to squawk pod today.
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welcome back to "squawk box. the s&p has now cut ford's debt rating to junk status. they're saying it was already borderline for adown grade, before the coronavirus outbreak. s&p's outlook on ford is now negative, meaning there's a chance -- well, we don't know how big a chance a chance it could cut the rating further due to longer than expected plant shutdowns or potential recession. that could impact the cash flow and liquidity. ford shares are down about 3.25% there, maybe a little bit more
down to $5.21. joe, over to casa kernen. >> coming up, mike wilson should be interesting from morgan stanley is going to join us talking about the market turmoil. as we head to break, here's some images of the pandemic's impact from yesterday from all around the globe. we're coming right back. the barkins are empty nesters now. should they downsize? probably. will they? not as long as thanksgiving is a holiday. planning for the future is about more than just money. let equitable be your guide.
. breaking news. >> the senate passing its coronavirus relief stimulus package overnight. that bill now moves to the house. futures indicated lower in anticipation of what's expected to be a big spike in jobless claims today and the number of coronavirus cases in the united states approaching 70,000 the number of deaths now passing 1,000. it is thursday, march 26th, 2020, and our breaking news coverage of markets in turmoil continues right now. good morning and welcome
back to the "squawk box." i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin i'm glad to be here. you guys owe me about a half hour actually, kind of nice. >> all built up. you have so much to say. >> i wish you guys could see gunther, right here. i can't point this thing i'm afraid to even touch it, believe me u.s. equity futures at this hour, we're down about 180 i can give you an estimate i can look up at my tv but i know it's 10 seconds late. down about 180 on the dow. and then if we look at the ten-year, i believe that's at about, what is it about .8 .81, something like that i was told we want to check in now with mike santoli and this is -- oh, andrew maybe
okay no mike, i am told, so let's go back to you, ars >> we are going to go to a different mike now we'll try to get mike santoli on the line in a minute want to get to our big desk for the morning. one of i should say our guests of the morning, mike wilson. chief u.s. equity strategist of morgan stably. good morning, mike thank you for joining us you've been talking about this being a recession and maybe being a worse recession than had been anticipated we're going to get these unemployment claim numbers a little bit later today how are you seeing things right now? >> yes thanks, andrew hope you all are well. look, i don't think that's a novel thought at this point. it's a consensus we're in a recession. it's going to be steeper than we've seen ever before the question is is it going to be short or is it going to be elongated. we're leaning more to the short and sharp because of the policy response that we're getting is
so dramatic. you know, i think it's also pre-consensus now given the bill's been passed, given what we've seen the fed do. i think the more important sort of question for investors is to think about, well, how has the market been trading this for a while? i think there's still some debate around the market has been expecting a recession, you know, at some point, right we've been trading very defensively leading up to this virus shock, which is what tipped us over into the recession. the call is we've been in a bear market for the average stock, not all stocks it's a giant colsonly days we've been scaling back in the stocks in the last two, three, four weeks we're not going to catch the
bottom exactly we think this is the best risk/reward we've seen from investors in two years. >> mike, a lot of people, of course, are asking the question have we hit the bottom where is the bottom? we've had these two up days now. folks are looking at the curves, the numbers. perhaps the numbers in new york may be better. i think there's a real question about that right now how do you see it? do you think a bottom is in? >> i think that's not the right way -- that is the right way to think about it, but not in calling into the day no one is good enough to call this to the day and to the dollar that's not really the point. if you have real assets to pull the to work, which most of our clients do, you need to think about is this a good price if i'm investing for the next 6 or 12 months and we do. we like these a lot. even in some of the lower quality equity markets.
>> mike, makethe case for the though make the case for the v. you see what happening over the next two or three months >> so we're going to start today. get a shockingly high claims number that has been pretty well telegraphed at this point. unemployment rate is going to shoot up in a way we've never seen before. let me explain how the unemployment cycle works typically when a recession begins, it starts with claims popping up, you get layoffs slowly it takes two years for the unemployment rate. that's not awe guarantee, right? that's not necessarily something we can predict with accuracy, but the magnitude of the moves suggests the possibility that would argue that on the other side unemployment isn't going to shoot back to the low the market bottoms when people feel like all of the bad news is
priced markets bottom on bad news that's the case where the v is, so sharp and so truncated. you'll have the unbelievable policy response that the market is going to look straight through the valley that it went down 35%. >> joe >> thanks, andrew. mike, that's all very interesting in a lot of respects because no one predicted this. in a certain way, maybe it's a way to look at it not with a silver lining but one of the positive things is that you're describing, that is a long in the tooth bull and a long in the tooth expansion that one way or another some of the excesses were going to get wrung out of it this provided it in a hideous way obviously, but for someone purely that does what you do for
a living, it set up an entry point long term that was better than what you've had in the past couple of years. is that fair to say for you? >> that's exactly our narrative. joe, we've been talking about end of cycle for a while the conditions for recession were in place. the credit markets are having a tough time not because of the virus but they were extended we've had excess in the corporate credit markets and in the shadow banking system. you needed a trigger i would argue strongly it was not just the virus that was the trigger but the oil price that collapsed. here we are. you know, as investors, you have to always be thinking about, a, what's the market already pri d priced, we don't know if it's going to be a v or u, we don't
think it's going to be an l. just like we sawed last year, western more at the end. >> 3,000 is a bull i shaish cas >> mike, we had somebody yesterday describe this as a potential w recovery, just up and down and up and down do you think that could be you said it's not going to be an l but if it's a w, does that concern you at all do you tell people to time it or don't worry on the day-to-day moves? >> depends on the client, right? we have all different types of clients here we have short-term clients, asset owners thinking about the long term. if it's a w, fine. that's a typical process as long as i'm doing my buying towards the low end of what i
think the right range is, we've articulated that as our 2400, 2500 and we overshot that, fine, give us a better entry rate. that's the way to manage the longer term money. i don't know how this is going to place out i'm going to start doing that and that's what we've been do g doing. >> joe, jump back in >> i would i think we're trying to get mike santoli. i'm fascinated by mike's analysis here because, mike, in your view i guess we over shot a little bit based on fundamentals when we were up on the s&p well above 3,000 and now, you know, you're talking about that's the bullish case getting back there. you're probably pretty comfortable with the market valued at 3,000 if it were to,
in your bullish scenario, get back there, and valuations would be more reasonable when we overshot it three, four months ago. i'm just kind of amazed to see you so sanguine in the midst of what we're all dealing with. historically that's the way markets perform. i don't know, i guess i'm gratified in thinking you may be on to something hear >> well, i mean, think about it this way, right? they're generally pretty efficient. we are going through a terrible situation right now where people are scared about not just the market but their health. that sets up a persuasion to over shoot but think about the fourth quarter of last year we were discussing this with you all on the show and others were, too. everybody knew we were kind of getting a little bit euphoric. the fed was active there was a lot of leverage coming into the system we tracked a lot of these sort
of leverage players, we tracked the strategies that had to participate when markets go up and down we wrote about that in the fall. they're derenching and that's what's over driving this so, yeah, i think this is how the market works it ebbs and flows around these pain points. pain can be on the up side as much as it is the down side. i think we've experienced two really good examples with that with the fourth quarter last year and now what we're experiencing with this recess n recession. >> mike wilson, thank you. i think we've got another mike who's up and ready mike santoli, and you are probably in rapid attention listening to mike, too, as a market quasi historian, mike,
for being so old and being around from barons did that make sense what you heard from mike wilson, mike santoli. >> reporter: it's true being at barons afforded me the experience of the century long history of barons i think is what you mean, not that i'm so old having been there. >> i did mean that that's exactly -- >> reporter: yeah. no, i mean, i think i'm more or less right with him, especially on this idea that you had these exacerbating factors just mechanically that definitely contributed to the speed and kind of vertical nature of the decline. you know, we can look at it on a more -- the stocks made a low in the last week or so no matter what happens to the indexes from here i still think it's fragile i don't mean a trading
algorithm, i'm thinking about the economic seizure we're in. the new york state infections or something, but i don't think right now investors collectively have a sense of, okay, here's how i can track and monitor where this goes, but i think that's the give and take today we get stress tested by this unemployment claims number which is going to be monstrous as we all know and then the continued sense that, yeah, we're going to get a hospital bed. when the market goes down 35 percent, of getting a little more bullish we just don't yoi yet know i think the fed and congress have now buffered trying to support collateral damage. that's what we're watching as
well >> it's one of the most surreal moments in any of our lives where on the one hand we're watching the claims number and that's a number that we're going to see that's going to be large, and at the same time we're trying to analyze hospitalizations in new york city and whether we've seen a little bit of a slowing in that and watchinggovernor cuomo who you've got to admit, a hell of a governor of this state he's a democrat. i'm willing to acknowledge that in this case in fact, you can watch him on predict it he keeps moving up in terms of national aspirations you've got to admit. did you ever think you'd be watching a claims number and wondering whether hospitalizations are slowing enough so everyone will have an icu bed. >> no, not really. that challenges the whole flaems
a lot of us have this and it presents a real established way of trying to sort those things out. >> there's no way the two things aren't -- look what's causing the unemployment claims. it's all interrelated. every other guest has to be a doctor or epidemiologist for us to analyze what's happening. it's crazy hard to understand anyway, mike santoli, thank you. becky, you're going to take us somewhere. i don't know where >> yeah. joe, not to mention that we're all doing that mental calculus to figure out if we've got enough toilet paper we need to get through this as you mentioned, every other guest being a doctor when we come back, we are going to be talking to a doctor who runs a network of hospitals,
out-patient services, long-term facilities he'll be talking to us next to talk about what he sees in virginia let's get a check on futures this morning right now it looks like the dow is indicated to open down 180 points when we started the show at 6 a.m. eastern time the dow was down by over 315 points. this of course comes after a couple of days in a row of gains. big gains. the dow has gained more than 13%. staeb down than it had "squawk box" will be right back. i know that every single time that i suit up, there is a chance that that's the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. i might be crazy but i'm not stupid. having an annuity tells me that i'm protected.
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welcome back, everybody. as you know coronavirus is putting a crunch of health care systems. joining us is the leader of innova health care systems in virginia dr. jay steven jones is the president and ceo. thank you for being with us. >> my pleasure good morning, becky. >> let's talk a little bit about what you're seeing here in new york we're getting stories, there was one in "the new york times" today, about elm hurst hospital in new york city, one of the doctors described the scene as apocalyptic
there were 13 deaths in one day from coronavirus they are facing overwhelming and very straining situations. what are you seeing in your systems at this point? >> it is heartbreaking to hear that there are things like that going on anywhere in the world and in our own country our thoughts certainly go out to that situation we are in significantly better shape here at least in this position, two weeks ago what i had said was we're prepared and have seen our first patient. what we've seen since then is we have community spread now in the washington, d.c., area in fact, most of our exposures have been through the community and not through the early things like travel and health care. we have seen that our people have done exactly what we would expect, which is they practice what they spent their whole careers being ready to do which is take care of people that are critically ill as you know, coronavirus is not unique many aspects of its care, it's
intense critical care for those who do need it we've had adequate capacity to be able to do that so far and are doing very well. >> dr. scott gottleib, the former commissioner of the fda told us yesterday, i believe, that he is worried about pockets including the area in washington, d.c., and surrounding areas. that's where you operate how worried are you or is this a situation where you think steps that are being taken can bent the curve effectively. >> we are hopeful. we have to be prepared to assume that may not be the case as well we make no assumptions on how quickly this will be over or how much the curve has been flattened. one of the keys with any protections is this is a disease with less than four months of tracking data so models and things you can follow, decades or other diseases, this is a four-month old disease we make no assumptions on that and we'll be prepared for assuming the worst
>> where do you stand right now in terms of supplies when it comes to testing kits? >> we're still in good shape on supplies i think what's interesting, i was walking the halls in one of the hospitals on monday morning. i've heard we might not have enough supplies. i was able to say very accurately, we absolutely have enough supplies. we don't have enough supplies to use them unwisely or squaunder them we've been meticulously to make sure we use all of our ppe, personal protective equipment, i think it's becoming a well-known term at this point in the public, and then also the testing kits the testing kits still are probably our most significant supply challenge and the situation has been a significant limitation, including that we have a lot of times where we have to use ppe because we don't have tests back to know whether the patient truly needs to be in that type of isolation so the quicker we can get that,
it's not that it changes the management of patients, it changes how you deal with them including ppe, isolation and et cetera. >> i'm sorry, what's ppe stand for? >> personal protective equipment. it's been the biggest focus. it's an issue that hospitals that you mentioned are having because they don't have enough masks and gowns and things to protect themselves one of our highest priorities including innova is protecting our own team members who are taking care of patients and that's critical that we do that not only now but however long this goes on >> dr. jones, i want to thank you. >> thank you we're seeing inspirational work in our teams thank you. >> take care we'll talk to you soon >> okay. thank you. >> andrew. >> okay. federal reserve chairman jay powell speaking moments ago on the "today" show about the fed's response to the coronavirus outbreak
>> is there any limit to the amount of money the fed is willing toput into this econom to keep it afloat? is it a blank check? >> no. we can continue to make loans and really the point of all of that is to support the flow of credit in the economy to households and businesses. >> so you're saying, no, it's not a blank check but, yes, you're prepared to spend an unprecedented amount >> we certainly are. >> steve liesman joins us now with his reaction to some of the comments that jay powell just made on air. steve? >> reporter: andrew, i thought that was an important part of it actually later on in the interview he says, we are not out of ammunition. he says the federal reserve still has multiple dimensions in which to come in and support the economy. he did say we are likely in a recession but said this is a different sort of thing. this is a downturn not created by anything wrong with the
economy, it's caused by the order of public health officials and the desire of people to stay inside and not do work and to idle back the economy. so when this thing passes given the right amount of stimulus and lending from the federal reserve, he seemed reasonably optimistic about a rebound on the other side saying nothing is fundamentally wrong with the economy. let's see what else. he did speak favorably about the stimulus saying he will provide relief and stability and said the fed can step in anywhere the fed is not winning >> steve liesman, we will see you in a little bit. >> andrew. >> take it back over to joe. yes, steve >> i was going to say -- >> go ahead. >> i was going to say one more thing. the idea he's doing this at all is interesting you guys remember the beating
the fed took in the last crisis. i think there's a proactive effort on the part of the fed to get out in front of it and not only say it is helping the american public, it is, but kind of avoid that backlash the fed got last time by really supporting the banks and banking system joe? >> steve, thanks we're going to come right back coming up, the senate which passed a stimulus relief, now it's going to head to the house. we're going to speak to senator chris van hollen about what it means. make sure you deep locked on cnbc 9 a.m. don't miss treasury secretary steve mnuchin. we'll be right back.
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. still to come on "squawk box" this morning, the senate passing a huge stimulus bill it is now heading to the house which hopes to approve it by tomorrow we're going to discuss what it means for the economy and the american people with senator chris van hollen we'll do that next then at 8 eastern, don't miss
. welcome back to cnbc's breaking news of the coverage of the coronavirus pandemic the government response and the reactions in the markets take a look at u.s. equities futures right now. we are about an hour before we're going to get those jobless claims numbers which may shatter records. that's not going to be a good thing, but dow looking like it would open down 200 points 190 points nasdaq about 42 points down. the s&p 500 looking to open down 23 points. breaking late last night, the senate approving the stimulus relief bill that moves to the house. eamon javers joins us with more on the latest. eamon? >> reporter: andrew, it was an historic 96-0 vote on historic $2 trillion stimulus bill.
you can call it an aid bill. it's designed to support the economy and all of the actor that have been so badly hurt fed pair jay powell was on the "today" show a very rare interview talking about this bill being the front lines and the fed being the backstock. here's what he said. >> i would look to the legislation that passed last night or this morning really, which is going to direct aid to small, medium and large businesses, to low and moderate communities, unemployed, state and local governments, the health care system that's really where the immediate relief is going to come from. the help from the fed will be when the economy begins to rebound, then we'll be there to make sure that rebound is as strong as possible >> take a look at what's in this package. they're calling it the cares bill the main piece that a lot of
americans will see first is the direct aid, up to $1,200 per individual $500 per child payment in there. all of that begins to phase out as you get up towards $75,000 in annual income and nothing over $100,000 in annual income. for the unemployed it expands benefits from 39 weeks from 26 weeks. it extends benefits to gig workers and the self-employed. that's new for this bill and that's going to be important for all of the uber drivers out there. for small businesses, there's a $350 billion small business loan program. those loans though can be forgiven after an eight-week period if the firms don't layoff any employees. that's essentially free money for a lot of small businesses across the country for big businesses, $500 billion in loans with direct aid to companies. the government could take an equity stake here. the federal reserve will massively expand its lending facilities backed by some money
into the treasury for the states it's $150 billion in direct aid for hospitals. $100 billion in aid plus a bump in medicare payments for virus patients so, andrew, there's an enormous amount in this bill. we'll spend probably the next couple of days combing through it finding out what all is in there. those are the big headline numbers for you now. >> eamon, a quick question for you. maybe this is just a link questions sticks issue it could be important. in the full screen you showed says they can be forgiven? >> yeah, they will be forgiven under certain conditions the main condition is the employers have to not layoff anybody. if you look at the language, it looks like there's a calculation based on the average number of employees from february to june. i want to get more clarity on how they're going to define not laying off anybody so small business owners can understand their obligation here. the idea is if you don't layoff
anybody from your company, if you have the same number at the end of the loan as you did the beginning, that is free money. there's forbearance -- i'm sorry, go ahead. >> what if you already laid off people >> well, that's -- that's a question that a lot of small businesses have and we're trying to get some answers to it. i believe that what we're looking at here is an average number of employees. if you rehire them after you get the loan, there may be a work around there if you rehire other people, if not the -- >> just before yeah >> as long as you have the same head count there may be a work around there i'm looking to the senate for more details on how that works, who counts and what the dates are. what's the date frame for the head count issue all of that is important great, eamon joining us on the phone, senator chris van hollen from maryland serves on the appropriations,
banking, environment and budget committees good job, senator. it's done. we know that we don't like the perfect to be the enemy of the good, we don't like that express or whatever it is, but would you say what both sides got was not perfect but it was good or are both sides still stinging from not getting everything they wanted in there? how are you feeling about it >> well, it's good to be with you, joe, and the gang i would say it's the former. i think people recognize that this isn't perfect i would not have written this bill exactly this way but overall this is a good thing for the country. it's an emergency. it's rare you get a 96-0 vote in the senate unless it's something like naming the post office after a historic figure. so this is a $2 trillion bill.
it's an important rescue operation. i see this as an effort to weather the storm. with respect to the last question that was raised on small businesses and how you get your loan forgiven, if you've already laid off employees, and some of course have, if you use these funds to rehire those employees and use them to pay your, you know, fixed debts, then you qualify sop obviously there are lots of people who have already had to close their doors since they will be given. they should last about two months that's one area that may well need to be extended depending on what happens with fighting the virus. >> does it walk the fine line between main street and big
corporations and wall street, senator? and i would imagine that we've all learned given what happened last time around in the financial crisis, you learn -- hopefully you learn from every one of these situations, but do you think it makes -- it threads that needle for not making it look like we're just subsidizing risk in the private sector and then having the taxpayers shoulder it? >> i think so. this was an issue of great concern to many of us. really trying to lock down the safeguards and accountability, especially around the monies that go to some of the biggest businesses, big corporations and we made it absolutely clear that to the extent that the government is providing cash, equity as opposed to loans, it's important to protect the taxpayer's interests by taking,
you know, a non-voting stock interest that would be sold off later on most of that is in the form of loans relief to the large companies, and i would say that, you know, if you look at wo workers, the main two components here are how the beefed up unemployment compensation will work along with the small business loan forgiven piece those two taken together are designed to make sure that on the first -- in the first instance we try to keep employees on payroll, but if they can't be on payroll during this period of time, they would have at least around 100% replacement income in many cases when they go on unemployment compensation for the four-month period so it's an emergency bill that i think to answer your question, i think it addresses all parts of
the economy in a smart way >> i wanted to go further with this, senator. do you think at this point what it's designed to do is not a bail out really? maybe we didn't need to be quite as concerned since it's a relief package and since you can't really assign any blame, i don't think. maybe you can talk about previous buy backs, things like that, that in hindsight certainly don't look like they're strategically very smart, but that makes this a little bit different and i think otherwise republicans and democrats, they've been like cats and dogs really, that's the only thing that allowed this to come together so quickly and with a pretty good outcome, i think don't you think that we're all in this together like we keep saying >> yeah, we are. and as you said, i mean, this
is -- you know, we have to fight this coronavirus and that means both surging resources to the front lines, to the health care workers. making sure that we really begin to deploy more tests i mean, we did get caught way behind on that beginning to catch up. obviously we need to make sure that we get the personal protective equipment to the nurses and doctors and others on the front line got to get the ventilators so we've really got to win this fight against coronavirus, and of course a big part of that has been social distancing and so it's certainly not the fault of any business that we don't have, you know, customers coming into the door of the restaurant or getting on an airplane that's why i agree with those who say this is not a stimulus package, right putting more money into someone's pocket at this point
in time is really to make sure they pay their ongoing bills it's not because they're going to be able to run out and go to a restaurant or go to disney world or anything like that. so this is -- >> senator -- >> -- weathering the storm. >> senator, to that end, if this is really about weathering the storm, given that the airlines asked for a very specific bailout that's industry specific, if you will, so it's not part of the broader package, can you justify to the public and explain your rationale when the executive compensation program, capping that at $425,000 a lot of americans, small business owners and others, are going to think that's unconscionable, and also the fact that certain -- ceos, for example, are likely to make millions of dollars. can you explain your rationalization or justification for that >> i don't like that provision you asked me at the beginning
whether i thought this was a perfect bill this is far from a perfect bill, actually, and there were a whole series of concerns that i had and others going to the biggest like the airline industry, now we tied down some important perspectives when it comes to stock buy backs. that was important as you say, the airline industry was on a stock buy back spree so -- before this. executive compensation has been limited. i mean, funds from this cannot be used to give bonuses, but one of the things we're going to be watching closely is how those monies are spent, which is why we created a number of oversight mechanisms, including inspector general with subpoena power. i would have liked to see a lot
more of these conditions written into the bill itself some were, but with respect to others, it's going to be a vigilant public that's going to, i think, have to be the watchdog here along with the congress and oversight. so to answer your question, i would have preferred to see more limitations on the use of these funds written into the bill when it comes to the kind of things you're talking about, executive compensation >> would you call off the boards -- would you call on the board to the airlines, for example, not to compensate at 2019 levels? >> yes yes, i would, and i can tell you, and i think you know this, i have talked to some of the folks at, you know, some of the big hotels for example, marriott is based in bethesda, maryland, my state. i know that the ceo, arty sorenson, he's not taking any pay.
they had to layoff employees because no one was coming into the doors of their hotels. and he says, you know, i'm not going to be taking any pay while i'm laying off employees so, yeah, i hope -- i hope -- this may be whistling in the wind here, but i would hope ceos and some of these folks would understand that they need to be part of this effort to, you know, sacrifice some as we go through this very difficult period many americans are getting hammered the whole purpose of this relief bill is to try to soften the blow on those workers, but i can tell you, americans and certainly myself and many others will not take kindly if we believe executives are abusing the resources in this bill that were designed to get through the storm, not pad anybody's pocket.
>> okay. senator chris van hollen, thank you for joining us this morning. becky, over to you. >> good to be with you. right now let's get to the latest on what's happening in the fight against the coronavirus. meg tirrell is here with the headlines on that. good to see you, meg >> reporter: good to see you, becky. let's start with good news we don't get to talk about it very much. yesterday governor andrew cuomo pointing out that in westchester it appears new case numbers may be slowing he's saying we do know how to slow this and we can slow it and you can see here, the blue line is westchester county those case numbers over the past couple of days have come down. we need more data to tell if something is starting to flatten or end and that can be potentially good news. the yellow line is new orleans we show you these numbers because public health experts are pointing to differences around the country in these
outbreaks and a lack of a coordinated national response. you're seeing policies on the county level differing sometimes even when counties are right next to one another. we have a map here of the stay at home orders issued by governors in different states. now these stay at home orders account for about half of americans right now in terms of population according to evercore isi some states have partial stay at home orders. for example, nevada has no statewide or any stay at home order in place with more than 300 cases. new mexico has one in place with 300 cases. florida and texas, the governors have left it to the local governments to impose those orders experts are saying because we travel so much in this country, that could lead to seeding outbreaks elsewhere even as we're getting a handle on it around the country dr. michelle barry said we need a coordinated national
messaging. in order to get us to a place where we're responding to it, people travel so much, if we're taking care of it in one place and not taking care of it in another, it could take longer to flatten the curve. >> for more on the fight against the coronavirus in the united states, want to bring in dr. zeke emmanuel, white house policy advisor he's vice provost of global initiatives at university of pennsylvania dr. emmanuel, thank you for joining us >> nice to be here. >> zeke, one of the things we're all trying to figure out is the time line. that is probably singularly for business owners, for the health of the country, for everybody trying to figure out what does this time line look like we've heard the president talk about easter we've heard people in his administration saying each curve, which is local, could lost somewhere between eight and ten weeks. how do you see this playing out? just so we understand.
>> yes so the best, i think, analogy we have or the best place to look is what happened in china with imposition of physical distancing and quarantine. and if you look at their curves, they implemented this roughly at the end of january, the last week of january. and over the last few days they've announced no new cases of covid-19. that gives you an eight-week curve. these curves for those of your viewers who have looked, they're symmetrical. as they go up, they come down. they're bell-shaped curves i think the eight to ten week time period is probably right, but that assumes something very important which meg got to, which is we have to have a coordinated national effort. this patch work which i've been decrying is undermining the efforts. states that are imposing the stay at home orders, the
quarantines, if other states aren't, they're not getting the maximal benefit from a public health stand point of those stay at home orders and they're receiving all the economic pain. we need a national effort. it has to last eight to ten weeks or so and then during that time we need to have testing ramped up massively. also, we need to have contact tracing, something they did in south korea so that if a case does pop up after we begin to slowly release the stay at home orders, we can actually identify and isolate those cases so we don't have a big outbreak. those are the kinds of actions we need. >> zeke, here's -- >> yes >> the thing i'm trying to understand is let's say new york is two to three weeks away from its peak and, therefore, there would be another three or four weeks on the other side of that. if at the same time we have this rolling across the country with the possibility that people
could travel back into other states like new york that might have been on the other end of the peak, how long does that go on for if we aren't going to do a full national 30 day shutdown if we have this conversation in september, what will we be talking about? >> well, if we don't do a full national shutdown and we actually allow different states to go different ways and you have mississippi allowing everyone to gather, you are going to have just these roller coasters where we contain it in some area, then we try to ease it up and it just blossoms again. we are never going to get it under control. we will see 1/3 of the population infected. that's 1 million people dying. let me remind you, that's twice
as many deaths as from cancer in the entire country people say, we should let states go don't appreciate the magnitude of this problem. >> zeke, but also speak to this, because we've talked about this a lot with you over time >> yes. >> some people say that the cure is -- the cost of the -- the cost is worth more than the cure basically doing what we're doing is going to be so economically damaging, that's going to create its own health crisis overtime you've talked about what to do over the age of i believe 75 if i remember you know, how do you think about that tradeoff? this is about a moral and economic tradeoff that's taking place here. >> it's absolutely, but i think if we do eight to ten weeks now nationally, i think we can get to the sweet spot in between
if you don't, if you do the patch work, let's say in september are we going to have any big conferences everyone's going to attend? no are you going to have a lot more travel to disney world or disneyland no are you going to have restaurants open they might open for a little bit and then covid explodes and they'll have to close back down. i think that is much more uncertain, much more of a roller coaster and in that roller coaster, i predicted, i wrote about a couple of weeks ago if we don't do a national implementation, we will not be able to get the economy going. it will be in fits and starts and it will not solve the problem. i totally am sympathetic to you. ten weeks of quarantines with physical distancing is a big imposition on the economy, but the alternative is we actually do not get going, we don't open up the economy because every time we do we get a blossom of
cases, overwhelming number of deaths and overwhelming of the health system. >> doctor, the heartbreaking situation that we've seen in italy where doctors need to choose let's go back. please drill down ethically on your view and what needs to change you've told us a couple of times that people over 75 should stop getting treatment. they shouldn't be wasting their resources -- >> excuse me. >> okay. >> you are totally -- no, no, it's not that modified you totally misquoted me and i really object to that. >> what did you say? >> what i said -- that article was not a policy article that was a personal reflection, my view of my life and i said explicitly in that article this isn't a policy decision.
i don't say cut off medicare at 75 that's something governor patrick of texas says. >> what did you say? >> that's a personal view. if a patient -- if a person says, listen, i don't want medical intervention after 75, i don't want to be intubated if i get covid, i totally respect that and that would be my position s i'm not saying that's a national policy. that's a personal position we should ask every person to think deeply do they want to be intubated if they got covid. i totally agree with that. that's not the national policy the national policy has to be we provide health care to everyone and we want to save everyone's life if they want it, okay that's my position so i would really appreciate you quoting me correctly and not -- >> we had long discussions on it i didn't know you -- i mean, personally i didn't agree myself. >> i'll send you the article. >> okay.
no, i believe you. but i disagree personally that i would do that as well. >> okay. >> we all want to live as well as we can. >> that's one of the great things about america we can have a disagreement but the policy allows you to do what you want and me to do what i want >> okay. very good. thank you. we appreciate your time this morning. when we come back, we're going to talk to paul tudor jones. stay with us the barkins are empty nesters now.
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all right. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from disparate locations. actually, looked up disparate. it doesn't mean separate, it means totally differ locations and totally different situations, but here we are. the senate approving a $2 trillion package aimed at easing the pain from coronavirus. the house on the clock set to vote tomorrow. we're about 30 minutes away from the labor market carnage the latest jobless claims number expected to smash all previous records. and fed chair jay powell tells cnbc -- or nbc, in fact, that
the central bank isn't out of ammunition yet cnbc's breaking news of the pandemic and the market response continues right now. good morning, everybody. this is cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. here we are alone together we've been watching futures together and the picture has weakened pretty significantly. just in the last 20 minutes or so we are looking at the dow. looking at implied open down of 415 points we've been all over the place this morning we are at some of the weakest levels the dow down by 425 points s&p down by 47 and the nasdaq off by 116 of course, this comes after two big up day, at least for the dow and the s&p 500. nasdaq was a little bit weaker yesterday, but the dow finally put together two days in a row of higher closes as did the s&p 500. i thinkit was all the way back
to february 5th and sixth since the last time we've seen two days where the dow was up and the 12th and 13th of february. for the last time we saw the s&p do something like that the 10-year note has gotten weaker in yield in the last hour, too. it's yielding 0.87%. we've been above 0.8% the last couple of days who am i sending it over to? andrew >> great thank you, becky hedge fund titan paul tudor jones was the first to tell us on "squawk box" he was worried about coronavirus with us in davos back on january 21st here's what he had to say. >> there's no anecdote there's no vaccination there's no cure. we don't even know what the incubation period is and you're get thissing ready to go to the biggest travel period in china. >> are you seeing through this
or not i mean, on a morning like today. >> i'm a trader, not investor. >> correct >> if i was an investor, i'd be really nervous >> since those comments the s&p has fallen 25% paul tudor jones is our guest. he joins us now. the founder, chief investment officer of tudor investment corporation, chairman of just capital and the founder of robinhood. paul, thank you for joining us this morning >> thank you, andrew what a damn mess >> you have -- what a mess tell us about it you've been thinking about this i think literally since we spoke with you back in january you also wrote a letter to your investors in february calling this right again so understanding where your head is at right now, where the market is at and where this is all headed is very important how do you see it? >> well, i think covid-19 is --
listen, it's unlike anything we've obviously ever seen before if we kind of think about where we are right now, we're probably -- if you look at the human experience and we extrapolate from that what is getting ready to happen in the united states, to new york in particular, we're probably -- we're probably going to hit our peak somewhere between april 4th and april 10th my guess is we can have somewhere between 3 and 400,000 cases in the united states it's going to be a -- that's going to be a really challenging period i think for us as americans because certainly in new york city our health care system is going to get overwhelmed and it's going to be something i think all of us have to steel ourselves for there's a really high probability it's going to come i don't think we need to panic i look at this like when i used
to box i remember, i never got knocked out in my life, but having seen many people get knocked down, you learn something from that in your next fight, and i think what we're going to do is we're going to see the worst of covid-19 it's going to throw its best punch over the course of the next -- say somewhere in the next two weeks and then we're going to be on the back side of that the good news, the great news is that in hubei from the peak, it was 24 days, 24 days before they went back down to under 100 cases a day. we have to remember, there is light on the other side of this. we're going to get through it. it's going to be something that unfortunately probably didn't have to happen but has happened. let's not think about what could have been, let's think about where we're going to be, what we're going to do on the other
side >> paul, explain this. you're using hubei numbers to extrapolate out and model out, and i would tell you, by the way, i love your optimism. i hope you're right. one of the questions though is whether this starts to roll across the country, meaning, you know, the measures that were taken in china really did quarantine the situation in hubei for the most part. we have not had a national lockdown as we were just talking about with zeke emmanuel in the last hour. we're starting to see hot spots emerge in other places like new orleans and atlanta, elsewhere you know, new york may have its own curve, and hopefully we will get to the other side of that in a couple of weeks, but there may be new curves that emerge. how do you think about that as part of that time line or are you convinced that this is in lockdown now >> so clearly everything that
you say is 100% correct. i'm looking at italy, because i think italy is going to be the analog for us. hubei they had in hubei command and control. if you think about china, it's a surveillance economy everyone has an i.d. every phone can be tracked if you think about the preventive measures they took, maybe on a scale of one to ten, they're a ten and maybe where we're going to go in a free society is something like a five so whereas they had railroad tracks, if you look at their epidemic curve, they had vertical railroad tracks, we're going to probably have more like a hill and we're going to have a fatter right tail. and, again, i would look at italy for us as the guide as to what we can expect, and then clearly we're learning as we go through this, right?
again, if we go back to china, people who were food preparers, i was in mcdonald's yesterday, and they're serving food without masks without gloves in china, all food preparers at fast food were wearing masks, were wearing gloves, they were taking their temperature on the streets, they were taking your temperature in restaurants it's going to be interesting to see how our society responds to the pain and suffering that we're going to witness over the course of the next two weeks as we get to the peak of the epidemic curve having said all of that, and it is -- listen, my heart goes out to the people that are going to be our first responders. our heart goes out to the people that are infected. my own daughter has cv-19 right now. she's recovering from it she had a mild case. we're so blessed at 25 years old, 26 years old she had nothing more than a mild case she and her fiance
so i've seen firsthand what you have to do to self-quarantine. i've seen firsthand the impacts i've had on them i get nervous, i get nervous and something as we go through these -- and, again, i think the next two weeks are going to be the most challenging for us from an emotional, psychological standpoint we're going to see this curve and new cases escalate every day, but we've also got to be careful not to myth thol low guise this particular disease. let's assume a worst case scenario let's assume a million cases, which is 2.5 times what i think we're going to have, and let's assume a mortality rate. again, forgive me for speaking with such morbidity, but let's assume a fatality rate of 4% mortality rate of 4% like what we're seeing globally. so 40,000 americans sadly and
tragically will die. that still is the equivalent of what we see during the flu season so we've got to be careful not to mythologize this into the pandemic godzilla. we can beat this thing america can beat this thing. humanity can beat this thing we actually will we're going to squash it and send it back to the oblivion that it called out of. i have zero doubt in my mind about that, we've just got to be calm we've got to stay rational not panic over the next two weeks. >> hey, paul, first of all, i'm so sorry to hear about your daughter. >> she's fine. >> she's great >> she's working she worked every single day remotely while she had it. >> wow >> so, again, for the large portion of population this is not going to be a life threatening or -- it's going to
be life changing but not life threatening -- not a life threatening thing for a large portion of the population. >> i realize you've done the numbers and kind of worked this out, and that doesn't sound like it's unreasonable to think 4% mortality, that's probably higher than a lot of people think we're going to see in terms of mortality cases -- >> no, no, i think -- i think it will be much less. i'm saying in a worst case basis. >> i think it will be much less, too. >> i think on social media and the media we've got to realize we're prone to hype things beyond what they are and we all have to remember -- >> i -- i -- >> yeah? >> i understand that entirely, and i just want to talk through a little bit what we hear from doctors pretty frequently, including dr. scott gottleib who we're going to talk with in a minute, is the concern that even though he thinks, too, you'll come out the other side, you're talking eight to ten weeks on something like this, the concern doctors have is trying to
flatten the curve right now so it is less overwhelming on the health care systems in new york city do you go along with that? some people hear this and say it should be business as usual and states should not do lockdowns is that what you're saying >> no. be extraordinary vigilant, implement extreme safety measures until we get on the other side and see it in a free fall there's no question that's what we have to do. i think -- and my guess is that that's going to be sometime in late april, early may. that would be optimistic that would be following the hubei example. again, if you just think about this, we've got these incredible experiments going on country by country. some of it, china, command and control, singapore, command and control. hong kong, command and control they did a great job
we've got free societies in europe, in the united states they're experiencing -- are going to experience much different outcomes and then tragically we've got less developed countries like in africa who i worry about the most with the most vulnerable populations who are not going to be able, i think, to get even as far as many free societies in western europe as well as the united states. and those are the ones that i worry about the most but where we'll end up say, three, four, five months from now is we'll have these beta tests of strar yous degrees of intervention, various degrees of on boarding by private citizens of the protocols that it takes to actually stop this, and then we'll also have a real time gdp experiment to understand the
impacts it has on the economies and we'll know so much more in three or four months and i think we'll be prepared. fool me once, shame on you fool me twice, shame on me we'll be so much better prepared this fall to be able to deal with this, and i think to get back to business as usual and to resume the way our lives were but three months ago and i think we'll learn, again tragically, a lot about our immunity because we're going to see that unfold and practiced real time in some less developed countries. >> hey, paul, you know, you were right on the money january 21st, rather, to tell us that if you were an investor, you would be nervous. you would be risk off. given where we are right now in terms of the curve that you've now talked about and where the stock market is right now, if
you were an investor, what would you be doing >> well, i think -- i think what's -- i think what we're going to see is -- first of all, let's frame what's happened from a monetary and fiscal stance we have a fiscal package of 10% of gdp that's double what we got in october of 2008. double they came with another package in march of 2009 that got us up to 10%, and my guess is we'll be back with a bigger fiscal package somewhere down the road. from a monetary standpoint, we've already -- and by the end of this week we'll have bought $1 trillion worth of treasuries and mortgage backs we did in two weeks what it took the fed eight months to do in 2009 remember, we didn't even get
quantitative easing until well after the great financial crisis had started, well into the recession. here we've got a trillion in two weeks. by may we will have already -- at this rate already have purchased what took us six years to do in the great financial crisis investors can take heart that we've counter acted this existential shock with the greatest fiscal monetary bazooka. it's not even a bazooka, it's more like a nuclear bomb that's literally the counter measures that we brought in to sit there and to bring safety to our economic system. so i think some combination of those two will buy us time as chairman powell said this morning, it's the bridge to the future now what happened -- so my guess is -- my guess is one of the reasons the market is up right
now is because of all of the month-end rebalancing, the market is seizing the equities to buy that's one reason why my guess is we'll stay firm into month end. we'll be challenged into april we'll be challenged as we go through the epicenter -- the peak of the epidemic curve so i think that could bring us to a retest. it might bring us to a fractional new low, but i do think the stock market is going to find a bottom once we get the peak in the epidemic curve, no doubt in my mind the stock market will rally and it should rally. my guess is we'll be higher three or four months from now, five months from now than lower where we are right now what happens after that is highly dependent upon our ability to get back to work, our ability to resume normal functioning. and it's really interesting. you've got this dynamic tension.
you've got people such as myself in the economic field thinking about getting back to work, thinking about resuming normal activity you've got people in the medical profession who can only see the problems that they're dealing with and, my god, again, my heart goes out to them because they're dealing with these huge problems, but i can tell you from an economic standpoint -- each of us individually begin to think how we're going to get back to work how we're going to deal with the new normal if we don't begin today, not get paralyzed by the next two weeks and think about how we're going to resume a normal life on the back end of this epidemic curve, we're all making a big mistake so we've got to look through these numbers, look through the tragedy of the next two weeks, think about how we're going to restart our lives, think about how we're going to deal with the new normal and think about how we're going to restart america
the thing that i'm nervous about and one reason why i keep pushing this theme so much is that i think people give our economy too much credit for its resilience if i just look at -- the biggest thing that i'm worried about for the long run is that we have a huge, enormous debt buildup of the last four decades to levels we've never seen before in the history of this country. so debt to gdp going into the 2000 nasdaq top was 180% in 2007 it was 225% and at the end of this year we're going to be 270%. so it makes me really nervous, the resiliency, the possibility of a v bottom. we have impediments to that. we have structural impediments which is the amount of debt we have so i think we're going to have to think smart and we're going to have to begin now to think
about how are we going to restart our businesses and do it living with cbi and we might have to live with something that's going to be an impairment to our society, but it doesn't have to be the end of our society. so i don't know if we'll eradicate it i do know that if we have greatesting, if we can have just in a few months' time, three, four, five months' time, if we have testing so that we can identify and begin contact tracing individually, and as a society if we embrace that, then we can live with cv-19 we can live with people being out of work for a period of time, self-isolate, quarantine, and get back to things as normal i think that's what we've got to do i'm most hopeful for the testing. >> paul, you're a trader obviously, but you're also a human being and you talk about,
you know, your family and things like that. when you were most -- i don't know whether you would call it despair, but at your moment of peak worry about this, did you ever think in numbers of millions dying in the united states was that a possibility at some point? and is it still a possibility that it could get to that point or did you -- >> zero chance zero chance. zero chance. please, we are -- we are too smart. we are too smart as a people we're too resilient. again, i think when this is all over and said and done we're going to look at death rates very similarly to the flu because we're going to take the precautions that are necessary to keep us from suffering from that type of mortality rate from cv-19. what i'm worried about, i'll be
really honest, what i'm worried about is, again, if our economy is -- oh, my lord. we had a 40, 50-year buildup of a globally interconnected, globally leveraged, highly sophisticated fine-tuned economy built on -- built on global trust, built on individual trust. institutions with huge amounts of cross connectivity. so now all of a sudden we've got this -- again, this event that has stopped all of that. we're closing borders. we're going insular. so i'm more nervous about what happens if we have something that's between the great depression and the great financial crisis what are the human impacts of that i'm much more nervous about the loss of life that could come with a 15 or 20% unemployment rate than i am about the loss of
life that comes with cv-19 cv-19 may cost us -- let's say cv-19, again -- i think we're going to peak out somewhere in the 3 to 400,000 range again, if i used a -- an overly pessimistic view of 4% mortality rate because our health care system will be overwhelmed in the next two weeks, we're talking 16,000 people. in the great depression there was a study that was out, a ten-point rise in the unemployment rate could have as many as 200,000 fatalities associated with it from health impairment, suicides, opioid use, drug use, et cetera so i'm thinking about -- and, again, as someone in the economic world, i understand the necessity and the need for us to deal with cv-19, but i don't think that's our biggest threat. our biggest threat is what
happens to the economy on the other side, and that's why i think each of us has to think how are we going to restart our business what do we need to do to make people say -- feel safe to interact again in business wearing masks -- wearing masks, wearing gloves, wiping down. i think as american people we're fastidious and we'll do this we're going to kick this bug's ass and we've got to think about how we're going to resume our normal lives >> hey, paul, we want to thank you for joining us, but before we let you go, i know you're doing a lot of work with robinhood in new york which is going to be the epicenter of this, at least in the near term. what are you working on with the robinhood program in new york right now? >> well, we had our benefit
scheduled a year ago for may 11th at the javits center. the javits center is now a hospital, but we're going to have our benefit it's going to be a virtual benefit. it's going to be on may 11th we're going to broadcast from a variety of locations we're still going to -- instead of serving -- having 4,000 people, we're going to hopefully have this televised and we're going to have with us 400,000, 4 million. new york city is the epicenter, and this bill that was just passed that -- you know, if you listen to pelosi, schumer, trump, workers, workers, workers. god forbid we're goingto need help for american workers, they deserve it, but there's -- again, there wasn't that much in there for the most destitute and the most poor, and so, yes, we got relief for workers, but in new york, which is the most number of people in poverty, 1.8
million, there's a lot of undocumented workers, there are people who have been out of work for more than a month that will not be eligiblefor checks. i can tell you food pan tris have already seen a 50% spike in people going we've lost our volunteers because people are afraid to go out in a variety of our organizations. this is the most important time for people to help the most poor because they're the ones that are going to suffer the most imagine all the kids in shelter who don't have the ability to get an education because they don't have online access, they don't have computers there's so much that we've got to do, and we're going to do it on may 11th. so tune in because it's going to be a great night it's going to be an uplifting night. it's going to be like our 9/11 relief fund that we had back in
9/11 i'll never forget. we were all so scared at the twin towers came down, then we had the anthrax scare. we were scared to even put that event on, and i remember at that event we had our first responders and introducing the who, this fireman came up, he lost his brother in 9/11. he said, osama bin laden, you can kiss my royal fat irish ass, and the place went nuts. that moment, that was the moment that america began to fight back so i'm hoping may 11th will be one of those beautiful moments where we'll be on the back side of the epidemic curve. we'll do it virtually and we'll show you can continue life but in a new way, and we're going to
continue business as usual and we're going to help the people who need it the most it's going to be a great night so more details on that. we'll come back and, again, i'm optimistic this brings out the best in us, these crises do. 2008 and the great financial crisis robinhood raised more money than it ever has i'm really optimistic about the future i know we'll beat this thing and i'll look forward to doing my small part in it, like each of us is going to >> paul tudor jones, it's a privilege to spend time with you. thank you for spending the last half hour with us and our viewers. i know we all appreciate it. we just have literally seconds to go now before we are going to get the initial jobless claims numbers you just talked about, the workers that are not working right now. we're going to be looking for those numbers in just a moment
dow jones teased them skyrocketing to a record 1.5 million from last week's 281,000 thanks to layoffs, as you might imagine, prompted by the coronavirus. let's show you the futures right now. they are down 490. nasdaq off 131 s&p 500 off by 54. the ten-year note real quick, we'll show you that as we put that board around. you're looking at the ten-year note at .779 rick santelli is in chicago. he is standing by at the cme rick, the numbers, sir >> reporter: it's a big number it's a big number. 3,283,000 our initial jobless claims say it again, 3,283,000. continuing claims on a different time line by a week. 1.803 million. so 1,803,000 on continuing
claims just to put a little perspective here, i went back. march of '09 we were 665,000 in october of '82 we were 695,000. so these are huge numbers. but then again, you don't have to tell somebody -- a lady who's pregnant that you're going to have triplets, don't be shocked when you come down with three babies they shut down the system. they are shocking numbers. that's not all the data. advanced goods trade balance for february, that's minus 59.9 billion. that's smaller than the 63 we were expecting wholesale inventories down .2. gdp, third look fourth quarter as we end the first quarter remained at 2.1. no surprises there then, of course, these huge jumps in jobless claims. joe, you know, there's not much to say everybody did good research from goldman, jpmorgan, morgan
stanley. they gave us a heads up. we had, of course, our head of the fed talking to america this morning with regard to preparing them for this, but it's still shocking nonetheless >> what was the worst, rick, that you saw on the street this is a multiple of that almost, isn't it, in terms of estimates? but as you say, maybe it shouldn't have been. >> reporter: you know, the worst i heard was 2.5 to 3 million so it really wasn't that far off. that was the high side i heard that was darn close. then of course this is a horrible thing, but the real issue is is that the economy is feeling the effects of turning the master circuit breaker of business down, and that had to be done, but the real question that nobody can answer, nobody can answer is when the switch goes back on, how quickly will it come back you know, you could be pessimistic, you could be optimistic, but it's impossible to be realistic. we just don't have any facts. >> i don't know what to make of
the futures. they seem to be getting a little better once you get that horrific number out anyway, who knows where we'll be as time goes on. let's bring in two former chair men of the council of economic advisers austin goolsbee and glen hover mike santoli first, let's get to steve liesman for some reaction to these numbers. steve, you probably -- i can -- can't imagine that your jaw dropped, steve i'll bet you you were right in this area, weren't you >> reporter: absolutely. you know, canada did a million so i thought for sure it was going to be larger than the 1.5. i did see one outsized note at 7 million. let me say three good things about this, and people can throw things at the television if it works. first of all, it shows the states were able to process more claims than we thought they could. i have to imagine the people working at these state-level
unemployment -- state unemployment offices are working under tremendous duress. the same concerns about coronavirus. that was one of the things that was going to limit this number all along. that's one desent thing, thesy were able to process it. the social safety net we had for all of igts failings is doing what it's supposed to do, which is to get aid to people who are shocked by developments in the economy. there's a third benefit here, joe, that i don't think we've thought about. generous unemployment benefits, which don't exist now but are more in the bill, play a role in fighting the virus what you don't want is people having to take risks to go out and make money you want them to be able to shelter in place and have the money to afford that so getting these benefits out is part of the process of fighting the virus. we'll need to review this, the bill that we have, to make sure it's inclusive enough so as not to create the motivation on
people's parts yes, it's a horrific number, terrible people are losing their jobs the question as to whether or not people are keeping people on the payroll and the stimulus, but it's doing an important job that it was set up to do >> austin goolsbee, i probably could answer for you since you're on tv so much i know what you're going to say about all of this stuff from last night, but give me an idea of what you think of the number we gist heard and the fiscal response, assuming the house, you know, moves this forward what do you think our future looks like, austin >> well, look, it's a brutal week we knew it let's hope they can get the relief out quickly because i think it's clear people are going to need relief i think we're in a circumstance where we just spent $2 trillion, it's not really going to be stimulus in the conventional sense. this is just -- we're going to take the money and we're going
to burn it to keep -- to keep people warm and so we're definitely going to need another round of relief and when we start to unpack what was in this one, and it was done so hastily there's going to be problems with it, i am a little afraid of let's call it the political will, the political legitimacy of these rescues so in a way the fact that this was as abrupt and severe and all in one week as it was is a sign that, you know, maybe the ultimate v shape could exist, that people stop going to work because we went into lockdown and maybe once we get some control on the spread of the virus, maybe we can come back, if not as fast as it went down, maybe it can come back in some rapid kind of basis.
>> glen hubbard, agree with austin, more optimistic? >> i think i broadly agree with austin a pandemic is not a typical recession. this was a shutdown of the economy for legitimate health care reasons, and the purpose of a federal bill at the moment is a freeze in place simulating normal economy, try to keep people attached to jobs and keep incomes. the recovery bill obviously had to be done quickly so it's not perfect, but i think particularly with small and mid-sized businesses it offers important aids and strengthening of unemployment insurance is also a very good idea. we're definitely not out of the woods. there are market stresses. the real economy stresses. i agree with austin, there will have to be some sort of a follow-up bill that's more of a true stimulus measure. so far i think policy has stepped up to the plate and now the question will be can it work is the implementation there?
>> mike santoli, this is unprecedented. i don't know what, 100 years at barons isn't going to help you here >> reporter: no. no, absolutely not unprecedented in so many ways. you kind of hopefully anyway front loaded an entire recession's worth of unemployment claims into a single report. i know it's now common place to say what matters most is the duration of this intentional stoppage of the economy, not as much what the numbers in a freeze frame look like today, and i do think it's what breaks along the way. do companies remain in place to rehire when we get through all of this? i know the market instinctually is going to want to have an excuse to anticipate and look through this huge shock. it will get it right eventually. the question is has it gotten it right already by coming off these lows because often we also
know that it over anticipates these things so i think it's -- anything that can give us a clue about the duration of what we're in right now. but i also agree that the other impressive part as folks were saying, this anticipatory proactive backstop that both the federal reserve and congress have offered kind of, you know, trying to try and buffer this a little bit so i think it's very difficult for markets to assimilate all of that and what might kind of break along the way. >> so, liesman, at this point is it -- i just can't imagine that it's ever not about -- more about how the virus -- how that entire scenario plays out. it's more about that or now with this fiscal response and what we heard from the fed, is that really less important? how much weight are you giving to the biological aspects of this and the financial aspects at this point?
don't we need to know when peak infection is to really make any determinations about a v or a u or a w or an l >> reporter: i was listening very closely to that interview with paul tudor jones, joe every major investor i know and major investment bank has hired some epidemiologist or is now crunching the data and trying to bring the tools of forecasting that exist in economics and data analysis to the growth of the virus here because, again, i don't want to talk, you know, in an inhumane way, but nothing is more important for the investment outlook than what's happening with the spread of the disease. you want to know when this economy is going to recover, when the shelter in place ends, it's going to have to be with bending the curve of the disease. there's another curve to think about which is secondary, which is this curve of unemployment. immediately you ask a question, what happens next thursday i think i can imagine a series of big numbers like this until
it begins to level off and then come down. and, you know, austin was very closely involved in creating some of the provisions in the last crisis stimulus bill, and this one is unique in that it's offering incentives to small businesses and medium businesses to keep workers in place, and this idea of putting incentives in bills for workers -- for businesses to do the right thing is something that's relatively new and it's really an interesting experiment to see if it will work, if the cheap loans will incentivize workers to keep them on their payroll. >> you know, that's a huge point, a huge question i have the feeling you're not going to see a lot of hiring any time soon, especially if mnuchin's right. i think he's saying maybe three weeks before you see this money getting paid out, and that may be on the on tow mission stick side assuming there are no bumps along the way. austin, i was going to ask you,
do you anticipate like steve does, this is going to be a series of bad numbers? i can see it being incredibly bad as businesses try to make this work as administrative offices, as banks try to figure out how to make this work. >> a lot of that is going to be mechanical some places won't be able to figure out how to process the claims and others are going to be the extended nature and some people will be holding out or the biggest wave of the virus hasn't quite gotten to them. not everywhere is in a shelter in place kind of environment i think the -- it just keeps putting back onto the nature of our data collection, let's call it, that most things come in with a lag and so i remind everybody, when we have the next jobs numbers, the jobs numbers, the unemployment rate and the jobs created come from a reference week and that reference week was before we hit the meltdown
so the next month's jobs numbers might not even look that bad, and hopefully people will not think that's a false dawn because like the unemployment claims, i think a lot of these things over the next two months are going to get worse and worse in an unprecedented way in terms of the numbers >> hey, glenn, one of the things i wanted to ask you because i know you've been behind this idea of this bridge loan with forgiveness on the other end, when you think about the small business owner who may very well be watching ustoday who's thinking about either whether they should lay people off right now because they're looking at the end of the week and they're saying there's no revenue coming in or they're saying, well, if i just hold on long enough can i get this loan, i may not get it for a couple of weeks, it's going to be a bit of a gamble, do you think people decide, you know what, i'm going to furlough or lay them off now and then i will try to re-hire them later to capture maybe part of the
loan, it's unclear how the mechanism of that would work, again, if they don't keep these people employed the whole time and what data points should they be looking at to make these decisions? part of it's about the curve and where they're based. if you're based in new orleans and you're looking like a hot spot, you could look at the calendar and say now it's another ten weeks before i can even get to the other side of this potentially >> my position on the last piece, the bill does contemplate aid for that period. the real issue is can the administration and the congress communicate with the small business community that this is real and this is fast. one reason to go to banks is that they have those relationships and so the money can actually go out fairly quickly. i'm a little more concerned about the small business administration overlay, but the banks themselves and small businesses should be able to do
this other small and mid-sized groups if that happens, i think they can be shored up relatively fast >> great >> andrew? >> joe >> you've got something andrew >> reporter: i want to make one more point, joe. >> i'm hearing steve >> reporter: i just want to say this we have a lot of rich people who watch our show we love you as viewers there are charitable benefits in the stimulus bill for giving money where it's needed now. take a look at those, talk to your accountant and give there are charitable incentives in there for people so all of you of our fabulous wealthy viewers, take a look. >> thank you thanks for that, steve yeah, speaking of wealthy people, thank you, austin goolsbee, glenn hubbard, steve
liesman, rick santoli and mike santelli talking about the $2 million bill passed by the senate as well as today's big jobless claims numbers joe, thank you we've been talking all morning long about the impact of coronavirus on the markets, what it means investors trying to figure out exactly how long it will last. let's bring in the opinion of a doctor on this, dr. scott gottleib who's the former head of the fda he's a cnbc contributor and he's on the boards of phfizer. >> i heard it. >> i don't think what he's saying -- i don't think what he's saying is all that different than what you've been saying over this period of time. he's very optimistic, looking to the other side and thinks
america will come back strong. wants to make sure business leaders are thinking about how to get back to business, but he did say that he thinks this is going to be an eight to ten-week period before that can happen. he anticipates the new york city health care system will be overrun. why don't you tell us what you're hearing and how your views may or may not match up with his >> i think a lot of the things he said this morning is consistent with things we've been saying for a number of weeks now. let me give you the optimistic case we've been talking about the down side case and about all of the tragedy and hardship the optimistic case is that the numbers that we're seeing this week and the rapid growth in numbers is attesting artifact. there was a backlog of testing and most of those tests were drawn at the hospital. they were more likely to be positive patients. once they move out testing and work the backlog, we'll see the rate of growth come down that we started early enough with the mitigation tactics and other states for the most part, i have some questions about that, but that is would be the
optimistic case. new york is likely to peak in two weeks in terms of their epidemic curve the governor said anywhere from two to three weeks it's going to be on the better half of that that would be the optimistic case, that we can control spread outside of new york city new york city peaks sooner and the rapid growth that we're seeing this week is the function of an artifact of a backlog of testing drawn into hospitals we're more likely to get positive cases the down side case, the sort of case of how this could get worse is that we now have nine cities that have more than 1500 cases if you look at china, china -- the bearish case, the worst case scenario is that you have multiple new yorks that louisiana, does, in fact -- new orleans does, in fact, become a place of epidemic spread, parts of florida do, perhaps chicago, other cities. that would be the worst case
scenario where we are in that, it's unclear. i mean, you can make an argument for either scenario right now playing out, and we're going to figure that out in the next week i happen to think that there are cities outside new york where there will be spread, they were late in mitigation steps but not so late that they won't have an impact and we can avert what's happening in new york in other cities potentially >> you agree with what he says about potentially eight to ten weeks from now when we start coming out the other side? >> well, if you think that the epidemic's going to peak some point in april, probably in the later half of april, maybe the middle of april if you're going with the more optimistic scenario it will take another six weeks to come down the epidemic curve. you're talking about getting into june until you start having cases come down to the point where you are clearing the epidemic here in the united states you can't flip an on and off switch what you are going to do as you
reach the apex, you're going to start to look at the population wide tactics and see what you can lift off very gradually and implement other tools and other approaches to trying to mitigate spread so this is going to be a gradual process. china actually did this very well in terms of what did to pu the brake off slowly and implement other things to offset the mitigation tactics they were lifting, the population-wide tactics they were lifting. we're going to have to follow a similar course we need a plan for how to do that and a different toolbox for the fall to prevent this from happening again. i happen to believe we'll get that toolbox i think we'll have a therapeutic, broad-based surveillance in society so we can detect it quickly and intervene quickly. >> i want to thank you for your time hopefully we'll talk to you again tomorrow appreciate it. >> thanks a lot. >> okay, meantime, i want to get to cnbc headquarters where jim cramer joins us. he's going to be speaking with the secretary of the treasury,
steve mnuchin, in just a little bit. curious what your take was, jim, on paul tudor jones' comments, a bit of optimism in terms of the timeline he's thinking about and where the market is, but he said there's a possible we still touch new lows >> i thought, obviously, this morning, was a great conversation it's a person who has seen everything in the market and also is addicted to charity and has done so much for so many people i thought that this is a combination, he's the perfect merger of fauci and the crew that says, we have to get to work right now in the sense that obviously, fauci is standing for the fact we can't get people in any more trouble we can't risk people's lives but at a certain point, we have to get back to work. and i think that the primary, which is health, which is something a lot of our viewers totally understand secondary is getting back to work now that we have the stimulus bill, and the stimulus, i think, is the way to tide us over
through both of the longer and shorter periods that he's talking about. i'm kind of excited about the fact at least there's something to make it so people can eat, but there's people in the cracks, and it's always been his charity that we all contribute that is for the people in the cracks, and the bill does not have people in the cracks. >> jim, i mean, was your peak despair when we thought we could be headed into hell with millions of deaths in the country. you heard paul tudor jones said basically a worst case scenario would be a 4% mortality rate and 400,000 is a long way from 16 million the economy has to reopen, i hope this fiscal plan works, and all those things but the first thing that was most important to me was that we don't have that type of mortality in the united states and i think when, you know, you look into the abyss and you think that's possible and then someone turns a light on and
maybe it's really not, just made me feel much better. and hearing the way he said it, absolutely not never even considered it what did you think of that >> look, i think we're a strong country. we're a democracy. there are people who want to do what's right what we have, i think, joe, is a kind of missalication of where people really need help versus other places where it's like they're ready to go back to work where we feel despair is we know states that have everything and the money and the masks somewhere are not worried about the paper and "the new york times" and not seeing what's going on this is not despair. it's more, let's get it evened out. let's get the people who really need it the help stay strong, but i think you're right. in the end, what we've got here is a problem that i believe can be beaten. i just wish the damn thing wasn't so crafty we don't see it. we don't know it it's on the surfaces but i just think that we've got to get it so the lockdown works. san francisco's got very few cases. new york has a lot
let's make it so it's not state by state, city by city, and get the resources to where people really need it, and focus on the fact that it's not as horrible as it seems. >> well, i'm putting a lot of stock in what he said. i just hope he's right but none of us, actually, i did have a couple questions. >> i'm putting stock in optimism when i see business doing -- business has been the greatest source of change during this period business is getting the masks. business is getting the personal equipment. business is there. a lot of stuff in the bill about the army, about national guard we haven't really heard from them enough. that's because they needed the resources. there so many things being thrown at this issue right now that if you're not optimistic, your head is in the sand >> okay, jim thank you. we appreciate that where we're headed now, i don't
know if we're headed to break. where are we going all right. let's do futures bazaar. as it happens a lot of times i think we were down about 400 or more when the claims number came out we have cut those losses basically in half. we'll see what the rest of the actual trading session brings once we open at about 9:30 but you might recall yesterday, we were up well over 1,000 points until it looked like there were some problems, maybe, brewing with the senate bill and then that didn't happen and we pulled back that we were up just under 500, and now we're giving back a couple hundred of those, becky i feel like we're owed the 1200, if the deal was going to be done, we're supposed to get 12 moinlts, and we don't have it. we have like 300 i don't know what happened >> you looked at the dow up -- the dow is up almost 14% over the last two sessions.
i wouldn't worry too much about what you're seeing just this morning. in fact, based on the unemployment numbers, the jobless claims 3.28 million that was at the very high end of what had been anticipated even by those who were really out on a limb guessing on some of those things that's what made the need for the $2 trillion stimulus package that the senate passed late last night so important joining us to talk about that on the phone is iowa senator chuck grassley he is the chairman of the senate finance committee, and senator grassley, thank you for being with us this morning i'm sure you saw the jobless claims number. what did you think when you saw it >> it doesn't surprise me at all. and probably next week it will be just as high. and that's exactly why we should have been passing this legislation on monday, not on wednesday night at 11:30, and now tomorrow, friday, in the house of representatives it's just critical the government has shut down
business governments federal, state, and local. it's through no fault of those employees or the small businesses that had to lay them off. and i hope that this $2 trillion that we're putting from the treasury into the federal -- into the economy, and i hope that the leveraging of the money that the fed's doing plus the stabilization fund that we put into this legislation of $4.5 billion, $450 billion, will also leverage so that we get about a $6 trillion kick to the economy out of this. and i think that particularly the small business part, which will help your restaurant employees and all that, that that will -- i think the banks are ready to go on that very, very quickly, and those are forgivable loans, if they keep the people on the payroll. so it's going to take a long
time to turn this around but this is really going to help do it. >> senator, i assume you're hearing from small businesses, medi medium-sized businesses and probably large businesses in your constituency. what have you heard from them, what's the message you have taken back to your colleagues, some of whom didn't want to pay out quite as much when it came to unemployment benefits too >> i think that obviously, this is a bipartisan bill passing 96-0 and it needs to be bipartisan in a time of conflict like we're having right now and the public health problem the public has to know that they're pulling together i think the grassroots, they are, and what i heard from my small business was first of all, probably the shock, probably didn't hear as much as you would normally hear. i mean, i think people are just shocked. there's a lot of anxiety out there. i hope this bill helps reduce
that anxiety but to help people over this hump, that's no fault of their own, and just think, a month ago, we thought we had the strongest economy ever and it was going to keep going forever. and so this is a real shock. but to help people over the hump, individuals should be getting a $1200 check. married couples, $2400 check $500 for kids. then the unemployment you're talking about that there may have been some conflict over, but it's a beefed-up amount of money going to people who are unemployed and this is just hopefully get us through the next 90 days. hopefully, this economy's turned around, and when i say hopefully, and it turns out 90 days not to be as hopeful as we thought, we'll be back here trying to tackle the same thing again. >> senator grassley, i want to
thank you for your time. we will check in with you again very shortly that's senator chuck grassley. andrew >> what a morning it has been. let's take a quick final check on the markets, show you where things stand right now we are in the red after getting the jobless claims numbers it's gotten a lot better than it was in terms of where the market is jobless claims, of course, shattering that 3 million number, but the dow off about 72 points s&p 500 off about 6 points we'll be back tomorrow with cnbc's special coverage continuing right now >> welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber along with jim cramer, as we continue to practice social distancing here at cnbc. good morning to everybody. of course, another momentous morning led by the jobless claims we got about a half hour ago. 3.283 million people filing for those benefits it's a staggering number, of course a multiple of the record that we saw, well, the